This is what I played at SCG Worcester:
http://sales.starcitygames.com//deckdatabase/displaydeck.php?DeckID=59611
Now, I want to talk a little bit about my preparation for the format, and my expectations going forward, and why I was able to identify what was going on at the event and how the format will look going forward. There are three things when preparing for an unknown format:
1) What is the area historically like
2) What do people like playing
3) What is actually good/What will be winning
In answer to the first question, the Boston area is historically very polarized. People like to play aggressive decks (either aggro, midrange aggro, or aggro-control) or they are like me and go ISLANDS ARE FOREVER! With this in mind, I created a testing regimen which allowed me to correctly identify what the field would look like in general and what it would look like at the top.
I began my testing with Naya, mainly because it was a holdover from the old standard and it tested very well intially, however, once a few cards were spoiled (Ashiok in particular) the deck failed to perform and I immediately pushed it aside. That is when I went into looking at a polarized format, as the midrange deck fell apart.
I began testing various forms of red-based aggro, throwing them against control and midrange and they were having quite a lot of success. This told me that red-based or red-like aggro was a real thing, and definitely something to be worried about in the new metagame. Thus, this became a top testing priority.
As the spoiler was unveiled, we were constantly making tweaks to our various aggressive lists and learning a lot. For control, the best thing to test against is the most aggressive lists that are still stable. Control's problem against aggro is not what happens in the midgame (control's cards are always going to be more powerful and help it gain ground), but what happens in the early game. If the aggro deck can get out far enough in front of the control deck, it can often simply ride that lead to victory.
What we found was that the control decks were able to keep up with aggro early, but just barely. Next, we ran the aggro lists against various mid-range lists (mostly ones based on Sylvan Caryatid, Fleecemane Lion, and Voice of Resurgence). Surprisingly we found the more aggressive lists to have match-ups that ranged from okay to amazing. This, combined with our early realization that Ashiok and Esper control had extremely strong mid-range match-ups in general led to the realization that the format was very polarized - aggro and control are good, mid-range is not. This meant that aggro and control would be WINNING.
Now for the question of what would show up. Due to it being the first week of a format, I expected a low density of control. In Boston, this meant enough to make it a dominant force at the top tables, but not in the general field. I did expect various GW-based midrange decks as well as GB-based ones to show up, alongside GR aggro, GR aggro-midrange, GR Ramp, and red-based aggro (I wasn't sure whether mono-red, Boros, or perhaps RB was the best, but they are all essentially the same deck, at least from a control player's perspective). We tested other sorts of decks but very little else stuck
Here's what my preparation showed:
GR midrange was mediocre. A deck based on Mystics and Caryatids would get run over by the aggro decks pretty consistently while not being fast enough to punish the Sphinx's Revelation decks. It would win games on the back of its giant monsters (like this deck always does), but overall I expected a low conversion percentage to the top.
Red-based/red-like aggro was very good (white weenie was included in this), and GR was the best performing version of that deck. GR has the tools to win the aggro mirror (Scavenging Ooze, Rampager, etc), while having strong threats vs. Control (Mistcutter Hydra, Stormbreath, Hammer of Purphoros, Xenagos/Domri). This allows it to stake out a space in which it is strong in many match-ups, and GR came out in my testing as the top aggro or mid-range aggro list (depending on the build). Mono-red showed up late as a contender, and we didn't have time to fully vet it. I knew Fanatic of Mogis and new Chandra were good, and they proved to be slightly better than I expected, but GR did perform very well, according to my expectations.
Esper was also clearly the best control deck. All other builds had problems which we identified.
American Control
American Control has two builds - a superfriends-like version, or an instant-based version centered on Steam Augury. The issue we found was one of defensive deck speed. Especially on the draw, the American deck had issues reacting quickly enough to the persistent threat base that RG or Boros could generate, and would sometimes just get run over by the faster red draws.
Grixis
The lack of a genuine sweeper was a problem against the larger aggro decks, particularly GW running Spear of Heliod. Often a solid number of 4/4's would show up, which is a headache for Grixis. Supreme Verdict proved its value here.
UW
UW ended up not being significantly favored against the faster aggro decks (which I didn't like), and still had very large issues with strong Voice of Resurgence lists. It was, however, not vulnerable to Burning Earth, which was an aspect working in its favor. Mistcutter Hydra proved to be a huge issue for this deck in testing.
Esper
Burning Earth. That is all I have to say.
With an understanding of all the decks, Esper proved to be the deck that provided the most advantages in exchange for its vulnerabilities. The list I ran takes into account most of what happened in our testing.
Ashiok, Nightmare Weaver is extremely strong against mid-range, and still okay against aggro and control. Against aggro, Ashiok has 5 loyalty and forces them to fight it, since all their dudes are the same size and very cheap, Ashiok can often drop multiple dudes pretty quickly, which puts a huge speedbump in their way. Against control, Ashiok can serve the same sort of threat as Ajani Vengeant did, slowly ticking toward the ultimate and threatening to nuke their hand (which is almost as good as nuking their lands). The card is, in fact, very strong and an asset in Esper's toolbag.
Esper has the best removal - Supreme Verdict is the best sweeper and black provides the best spot removal. Grixis has only access to the latter, and American/UW only have access to the former. Far//Away also proved to be an all-star in testing, a result which was confirmed during the event, as I wished I was running more copies of the card.
Esper has a legitimate (though not very good) plan of covering its primary weakness - Burning Earth. Esper can do this by combining Thoughtseize, Annul, Ray of Dissolution, Detention Sphere, and Blood Baron of Vizkopa to fight Burning Earth at pretty much every stage of the game. None of the other control decks can claim this comprehensive coverage of a weaknesses. Esper can shift itself to fight Burning Earth at all stages, and can do so with cards that frequently have value elsewhere, and are thus not simply narrowly directed towards fighting Burning Earth. Note that my final list included all of these cards as a method for covering that weakness.
The list I settled on was designed to cash, and T8 if I got lucky. Since I expected a field of midrange and aggro, but I expected aggro and control to win, I tuned my list to defeat most of the field, and left myself vulnerable to control in G1, with a sideboard plan for games 2 and 3 of bringing in lots of cards and using 7 Duress effects to position myself for the fights properly. This ended up being the correct thing to do (for me) as I faced a bunch of mid range and aggro, all the way to the point where I was effectively a lock for a top 32 position. I drew into the payout against a player playing GW whom, judging by his list, I was probably favored to significantly advantaged against.
In the end, the Top 32 of the event is exactly what I expected, lots of aggro and control, with a smattering of other things that happened to do well/got lucky/were played by very good players.
Going forward, I can't recommend an Esper list like the ones that T8ed, as I feel like the GR midrange aggro decks in particular can effectively adapt to beat them. The combination of threats attacking from a variety of angles (Xenagos, Domri, Mistcutter Hydra, Hammer of Purphoros, Stormbreath Dragon) combined with a general aggressive stance necessitates a proactive approach to control. Going forward, I would play my list with the following changes as a start:
-1 Thoughtseize, -1 Ratchet Bomb, -1 Doom Blade, -1 Ashiok, Nightmare Weaver, +1 Far//Away, +1 Essence Scatter, +1 Syncopate, +1 flex slot.
I think the sideboard is fine, for now.
As to what the finalized list would look like, I'm not sure, but I am very happy with my preparation for the event, and achieved my goal of performing well, although, of course, I would have liked to win the event.
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