Looking ahead to Theros

So, I think it's about time that we begin looking ahead to Theros.  From what I've heard, the general consensus appears to be that we are looking at a control and mid-range dominated format.  Here's why:

1) Naya loses very little.
2) Many of the good 2 for 1 creatures are rotating (Thragtusk, I'm lookin' at you)
3) Geist/Invisible Stalker are rotating
4) Monstrous, Heroic, and Bestow indicate a format focused around large creatures, either by their own making (Monstrous) or Voltron (Bestow).  Heroic plays into this because it gives you side benefits for Voltron-ing smaller dudes.
5) Cavern of Souls is rotating

All in all, I think this means that countermagic and spot removal become MUCH stronger post rotation.  Now, we can look to the cards themselves.

As far as strategy-defining cards are concerned, I think Sphinx's Revelation is the strongest card we have.  Other cards may prove to be stronger overall, but most of those are more generalist (e.g. Voice).  I think 2nd place in this category goes to either Burning Tree Emissary or Domri Rade (yes, being mono-creature is strategy-defining).

So, why is Sphinx's Revelation the strongest strategy-defining card?  Sphinx's Revelation is, right now, the endgame of control.  Why is control good in the new format?

1) Naya is a big aggro deck.  Traditionally, control is good against big aggro because they are still vulnerable to Wrath and are generally not fast enough to punish the control player for durdling.  Domri Rade messes with this a little, but we have tools for him (will be addressed later)
2) Thoughtseize is very good for control (it is also good against control, but information is one of the most valuable assets to a control player).
3) Supreme Verdict gets a lot better
4) The introduction of Doom Blade provides a good removal spell
5) Many of the good haste creatures are rotating, so fast aggro will have less reach and slow aggro will have less ability to put pressure on post-Wrath.
6) The tools for control are there.
7) Standard has been very creature-based recently, and this format looks to be no exception.  However, like I said before, the strategy of Wrath + removal + counters got a lot better.

The critical cog in the wheel of control is a card I think many people have not really thought about - Merciless Eviction.  What does Merciless Eviction accomplish?

1) Allows you to leave in a couple Wraths for the control mirror, because it can kill Jace/new Elspeth, as well as the new gods.
2) It kills Fluffy without triggering him (Underworld Cerberus for the non-initiated)
3) Artificially inflates your Wrath count against big aggro because it kills Domri Rade
4) At the end of the day, it's still a six mana wrath, which historically we have always been willing to pay for in Standard

Merciless Eviction is not great at anything.  Six mana wraths have always come with side benefits, and Eviction's ability to "handle" other threats is the benefit of playing the card.  Combined with DSphere and Thoughtseize, Esper should be able to keep most of the major non-creature threats out of its hair, allowing the rest of the deck to focus on what control does best - stomping decks that want to attack a lot.

The best way to build a specific deck is, in fact, to build the 60 you want to be playing in each match-up, then aggregate.  Right now, I'm looking at Control, Naya, and some form of faster swarm aggro as major archetypes.  It's possible there will be some form of rock-ish deck incoming, but it lost enough in the last rotation that Theros is going to be a major component of either a Doran-colored or Jund-colored list.  Since the specific threats this list is running will be greatly relevant to what I want to be doing against it, I'm leaving it out of the process for now.  These are the lists I came up with.

vs. Esper:
4x Negate
4x Render Silent
4x Cancel
4x Thoughtseize
4x Duress
2x Read The Bones

3x Detention Sphere
2x Merciless Eviction
3x Sphinx's Revelation

3x Jace, Architect of Thought

vs. Naya:
4x Doom Blade
4x Thoughtseize
3x Essence Scatter
2x Celestial Flare
1x Warped Physique

4x Supreme Verdict
2x Merciless Eviction
3x Detention Sphere

3x Elspeth, Sun's Champion
3x Blood Baron of Vizkopa
4x Sphinx's Revelation

vs. Swarm Aggro:
4x Doom Blade/Ultimate Price
4x Warped Physique

4x Supreme Verdict
2x Merciless Eviction
3x Detention Sphere

4x Fiendslayer Paladin
3x Jace, Architect of Thought
3x Blood Baron of Vizkopa
3x Sphinx's Revelation
3x Read the Bones

Aggregate list:
4x Thoughtseize
3x Doom Blade
2x Far//Away
2x Warped Physique

3x Detention Sphere
2x Merciless Eviction
4x Supreme Verdict

3x Sphinx's Revelation
2x Read the Bones
2x Jace, Architect of Thought
3x Blood Baron of Vizkopa
2x Render Silent
3x Essence Scatter
1x Negate

Sideboard:
4x Fiendslayer Paladin
2x Elspeth, Sun's Champion
3x Negate
4x Duress
1x Render Silent
1x Sphinx's Revelation

Just my two cents on where I think this format is going.