Metagame Development

So, SCG Worcester kick-started Theros Standard, and I thought I'd talk about where I expect the format to go in the next month or so (the timeline could be sped up by a number of factors), but States will likely have a huge impact on the meta.

Worcester clearly established Esper Control and Red-based aggro as the two top dogs of the format.  Each deck has variants, and I want to talk about them a little.

Red-based/red-like aggro

Each deck/color brings slightly different tools to the table.  Green provides Ghor Clan Rampager and the ability to go bigger via Sylvan Caryatid and a green mid-game, whereas white provides Boros Reckoner, Imposing Sovereign, and Soldier of the Pantheon.  Brave the Elements, Boros Charm, God's Willing, and Rootborn Defenses, and Spear of Heliod are also very playable spells that come out of white.

I expect this deck to remain largely unchanged throughout the metagame.  The top end varies from Fanatic of Mogis to Chandra to large green men to Stormbreath Dragon to Heliod, but overall the core plan is the same.  This archetype will serve as the gateway to the new format, and I believe this time it will stand the test of time.  It has significant game against the midrange decks as well as control, and thus I think will stick around, although I do expect the popularity to wane as people become more prepared for the specific cards and lists that aggro players are bringing.

Esper Control

This is going to be the elephant in the room in this format.  Esper Control has everything - Thoughtseize, Good removal for creatures and non-creatuers, a 4-mana wrath, solid card flow spells, good planeswalkers, excellent finishers, and a number of very strong trumps.  Oh, and they have Sphinx's Revelation to top it all off.  Of course, Esper cannot play all the tools, but the fact that it has access to all these tools makes it a very difficult deck to attack in the abstract.

The problem is that Esper can exist on a continuum.  Compare Calcano's Esper against my esper and you can see what I am getting at.  Esper can shift to be a very Weissman-style deck (much like Calcano's list), or it can go the other direction and be very tap-out-like (my list).  These lists have very different strengths and weaknesses, and what works against one Esper list is not likely to work against another.  There are some exceptions, and I will go through them here.

Cards that are good against Esper regardless of build:
1.  Burning Earth
2.  Thoughtseize
3.  Planeswalkers (particularly ones that generate threats, a la Xenagos)
4.  Non-creature threats (Heliod, Hammer of Purphoros)
5.  Aetherling

There are other cards that will be very good against the instant-heavy version and there will be cards that will be good against the tap-out version, but if you run those cards you run the chance of running into an Esper deck that is prepared for them.

If you look at the cards I just listed, you will note that they are only really answered by countermagic and Detention Sphere.  This is, I believe, the correct plan to fight Esper Control.  I believe Esper can be beaten if you stress its countermagic and Detention Spheres, allowing you to slip though a threat here or there.  The issue with this is that you need to apply pressure while doing this, otherwise you give Esper the time to cycle Azorius Charms, use Jace, or play Sphinx's Revelation and ensure that they have sufficient card volume to deal with your threats.

Burning Earth is the biggest threat, but Esper isn't cold to it.  In addition to DSphere, Ray of Dissolution is a reasonable answer, and Blood Baron of Vizkopa can fight the card.  I think Blood Barons will be in many sideboards for many tournaments to come.

Moving Forward

I expect Esper and UW to remain popular choices.  The other major thing I expect to see is the rise of GR midrange.

GR midrange has solid tools for dealing with mono-red in the form of Sylvan Caryatid, Flames of the Firebrand, Anger of the Gods, as well as its own one and two drops (Experiment One, Dryad Militant, Kalonian Tusker, Burning-Tree Emissary, Scavenging Ooze, all the red one and twos as well).  This means that the GR midrange deck can actually pack some punch in the early game, due to these ones and twos.  This serves two purposes.  Firstly, it puts speedbumps in the way of aggro players, allowing the GR player to use their bigger top end to catch up.  Secondly, it allows them to apply early pressure against control, much the same way aggro does.  It is very easy for GR to set up its maindeck to be reasonable against aggro.

Oh, also, GR Midrange players, Ember Swallower is bad, Flames of the Firebrand is good (it is probably better than Anger)

GR Midrange also has a wealth of tools for combating Esper out of the sideboard.  Burning Earth, Hammer of Purphoros, and additional walkers (Domri and Xenagos) will cause headaches for control players, because any one of these threats can take the game by themselves.  This plan will overload the control player's Detention Spheres and ultimately cause giant headaches.  Just remember to keep in your early creatures so you can force them to tap mana so you can resolve your mid-game threats.

Because of these factors, I foresee a rise in GR Midrange, and we'll hit a format where the midrange deck and the control deck will have to dance around and adapt to what the other side is doing, with mono-red around to keep everyone honest.

Other decks

I think the tools for other decks are relatively weak.  Naya midrange seems reasonable, but contrary to popular belief, Voice is pretty horribly positioned right now.  It doesn't do enough against aggro (Firefist Striker + Legion Loyalist ensure that), and Esper, especially the tap-out versions, aren't really that greatly bothered by the card.  If you really want to be a voice deck, you need to be running one drops in addition to Voice, and that puts you in the terrible spot of being really bad against Esper since you can't genuinely afford a third color (your mana shits on you if you do).

Many of the other midrange control or control shells are just worse versions of Esper, as they either lack the black removal or the blue spells (Jace, Sphinx's Revelation, Supreme Verdict).  It is possible that Grixis might be a thing, but I am very skeptical, just as I am very skeptical of the GW-based midrange decks.

I think the field will stabilize in a little while, and there will likely be a metagame development that introduces a new deck, but I think aggro, GR Midrange, and Esper are all here to stay, and I would definitely look at getting one of those decks if you plan on playing this format in the long term.